← Home-run Store Championships
Water FractalTier 2
at Home-run Store Championships
decks
1
(3.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
0-3-1
overall winrate
12.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.1%
avg ELO -6.4 per match
expected value
40.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1312
· median 1312
· range 1312–1312
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1225
Q3 1392
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 43.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 12.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 6.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tristan | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 3.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
